The question of how we can prevent and mitigate the effects of future pandemics has a down-to-earth answer – protect the environment. Duke researchers Stuart Pimm, Bill Pan and Dana Pasquale spoke to a virtual audience of professionals from Washington, D.C. on May 9th to discuss key insights about the adverse consequences arising from climate change, deforestation, wildlife trade, urbanization and other global environmental and animal health threats.

As Congress works on bipartisan legislation to prepare for the next pandemic, Stuart Pimm, the Doris Duke Professor of Conservation Ecology, listed several threats he thinks are important to recognize for the future. “Many disease vectors… are moving north and can begin to enter the U.S., fringes of Europe and certainly China,” Pimm noted, “we are an increasingly urbanized society,” and are continuing to be more mobile through migration and travel.

“These risks are completely independent from science and medical technology being able to address emerging disease…it is mostly riven by environmental, anthropogenic-environmental change.

Bill pan

The panelists outlined several additional factors – agriculture practices, illegal gold mining and logging – that also will exacerbate society’s risks of encountering new pathogens.

“These risks are completely independent from science and medical technology being able to address emerging disease,” Pan said, “it is mostly driven by environmental, anthropogenic-environmental change.” As a result, efforts to curb or stop these practices would have a great impact on the prevention of future pandemics.

By observing the COVID-19 pandemic response, researchers have also drawn conclusions about how we can better prepare for future disease outbreaks. Duke Assistant Professor in Population Health Sciences Dana Pasquale explained that while a vaccine is a helpful tool in healing from COVID-19, “the next pandemic will be underway before a vaccine is developed.”

Bill Pan, the Elizabeth Brooks Reid and Whitelaw Reid Associate Professor of Population Studies at Duke also commented on some of the other shortcomings of relying on vaccines. “The problem that comes in with the environment is that vaccines are an individual choice, but the environment is not,” explained Pan. “Climate change, deforestation and sea level rise all affect the population on a much broader scale. There are specific environmental interventions that we need to begin thinking about to prevent massive spillover of diseases… because vaccines will not always protect us.”

“As an ecologist, I think we need to recognize that there are some very straightforward, prudent, sensible and cheap interventions that we could implement.”

Stuart pimm

Pimm emphasized the importance of stopping deforestation of tropical rainforests – which adds an additional four billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere a year – as well as wildlife trade. “All of these are simple and cost-effective, and we have to think about these as a matter of policy to slow down what might be the next scourge.”

“As an ecologist,” explained Pimm, “I think we need to recognize that there are some very straightforward, prudent, sensible and cheap interventions that we could implement.”

From the local level to the global scale, climate and mobility jointly contribute to the rises and falls of pathogenic spread throughout the seasons. Pan highlighted that while illegal migration is typically cited as the main concern for transmission, “the fact is that internal migration within countries and even legal migration across borders are spreading diseases in ways that greatly exceed any type of illegal migration.”

Pasquale also underlined another risk, current agricultural practices which use antimicrobials to increase farm yields.“We’re doing quite a number to increase the likelihood of antimicrobial resistance… we know already that its heading to disaster and we’re not doing anything to slow down.” In addition, climate change, accompanied with defaunation and deforestation, will cause humans to encounter other animals and pathogens more frequently. Pasquale explained,“there will be opportunities for more novel diseases to potentially contact species that they never contacted before and in some cases, there will be a suitable host for that new pathogen.”

“Surveillance is a really tricky problem. It requires a lot of investment and resources… as anthropogenic climate change occurs, as the world warms, as people move, there has to be more of a focus on integrating animal health and environmental health.”

dana pasquale

In closing the three researchers provided policy staff in the audience with several recommendations and preventative measures.

First, Pasquale discussed surveillance and tracing of the potential transmission and spread of pathogens, which continues to be an issue even for developed countries like the US. “Surveillance is a really tricky problem,” said Pasquale, “it requires a lot of investment and resources… as anthropogenic climate change occurs, as the world warms, as people move, there has to be more of a focus on integrating animal health and environmental health.”

Closing with a call for action, Pimm stated, “Many of these things we can stop. Countries can suppress illegal gold mining and logging in their forests – they can stop deforestation and do this for the bargain price of a few billion dollars.” The important thing will be for countries, including the U.S., to implement strong, proactive policy and so these issues do not become insurmountable.

By Lizzie Devitt, Posted 5/26/22